Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 58.89%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 18.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 0-1 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
58.89% | 22.72% | 18.39% |
Both teams to score 49.87% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.19% | 48.81% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.09% | 70.91% |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.76% | 16.24% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.24% | 45.76% |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.54% | 40.46% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.93% | 77.07% |
Score Analysis |
New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
1-0 @ 11.94% 2-0 @ 10.85% 2-1 @ 9.82% 3-0 @ 6.58% 3-1 @ 5.95% 4-0 @ 2.99% 4-1 @ 2.71% 3-2 @ 2.69% 4-2 @ 1.22% 5-0 @ 1.09% 5-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.06% Total : 58.88% | 1-1 @ 10.8% 0-0 @ 6.57% 2-2 @ 4.44% Other @ 0.9% Total : 22.71% | 0-1 @ 5.95% 1-2 @ 4.89% 0-2 @ 2.69% 1-3 @ 1.48% 2-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.05% Total : 18.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 63 | 21 | 42 | 60 |
2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 52 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 47 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 46 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 40 |
7 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 39 |
8 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 38 |
9 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 36 |
10 | Toronto | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 33 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 32 |
13 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 29 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 32 |
14 | DC United | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 59 | -27 | 26 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 63 | 21 | 42 | 60 |
2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 52 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 47 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 46 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 40 |
7 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 39 |
8 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 38 |
9 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 36 |
10 | Toronto | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 33 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 32 |
13 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 29 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 32 |
14 | DC United | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 59 | -27 | 26 |