Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 55.6%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 20.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.