

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.27%) and 1-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 29.47% ( | 28.73% ( | 41.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.1% ( | 61.89% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.33% ( | 81.66% ( |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.61% ( | 37.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.83% ( | 74.16% ( |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.76% ( | 29.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.81% ( | 65.18% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.75% ( 2-1 @ 6.51% ( 2-0 @ 5.29% ( 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 3-0 @ 1.74% 3-2 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 1.74% Total : 29.47% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( 0-0 @ 10.92% ( 2-2 @ 4% ( Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.72% | 0-1 @ 13.43% ( 0-2 @ 8.27% ( 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0-3 @ 3.39% ( 1-3 @ 3.33% ( 2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0-4 @ 1.04% ( 1-4 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 1.52% Total : 41.78% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 |
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 |
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 |
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 |
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 |
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 |
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 |
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 |
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 |
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 |
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 |
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