

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
| 44.86% ( | 24.18% ( | 30.96% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.98% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.65% ( | 43.35% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.25% ( | 65.75% ( |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.5% ( | 19.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.62% ( | 51.38% ( |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.27% ( | 26.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.01% ( | 61.99% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.19% ( 1-0 @ 8.52% ( 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 3-1 @ 5.01% ( 3-0 @ 3.8% ( 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 4-1 @ 2.05% ( 4-0 @ 1.55% ( 4-2 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 3.13% Total : 44.86% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0-0 @ 5.21% ( 3-3 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0-1 @ 6.88% ( 0-2 @ 4.54% ( 1-3 @ 3.26% ( 2-3 @ 2.67% ( 0-3 @ 2% ( 1-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
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