Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Harrogate Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County | 
| 42.36% (  0.11) | 24.7% (  0.03) | 32.94% (  -0.14) | 
| Both teams to score 58.05% (  -0.15) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.05% (  -0.17) | 44.95% (  0.18) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.7% (  -0.16) | 67.3% (  0.17) | 
| Harrogate Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.73% (  -0.02) | 21.27% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.81% (  -0.03) | 54.2% (  0.04) | 
| Newport County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.73% (  -0.17) | 26.27% (  0.17) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.62% (  -0.23) | 61.38% (  0.23) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County | 
| 2-1 @ 8.95% (  0.01) 1-0 @ 8.65% (  0.06) 2-0 @ 6.69% (  0.04) 3-1 @ 4.62% (  0) 3-0 @ 3.45% (  0.02) 3-2 @ 3.09% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.79% 4-0 @ 1.34% (  0.01) 4-2 @ 1.19% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 42.36% | 1-1 @ 11.56% (  0.03) 2-2 @ 5.98% (  -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.59% (  0.04) 3-3 @ 1.38% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 7.73% (  -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.47% (  0.02) 0-2 @ 4.99% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.44% (  -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.67% (  -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.23% (  -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.15% (  -0.01) Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.94% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 | 
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 | 
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 | 
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 | 
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 | 
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 | 
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 | 
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 | 
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 | 
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 | 
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 | 
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 | 
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 | 
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 | 
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 | 
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 | 
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
