

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Exeter City | 
| 37.44% (  -0.03) | 25.43% (  -0.01) | 37.12% (  0.03) | 
| Both teams to score 56.21% (  0.02) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 52.34% (  0.03) | 47.65% (  -0.03) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30.15% (  0.02) | 69.85% (  -0.02) | 
| Port Vale Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.06% (  -0) | 24.94% (  0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.43% (  -0.01) | 59.57% (  0.01) | 
| Exeter City Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 74.88% (  0.03) | 25.12% (  -0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.18% (  0.04) | 59.82% (  -0.05) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Port Vale | Draw | Exeter City | 
| 1-0 @ 8.7% (  -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.35% (  -0) 2-0 @ 6.04% (  -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.86% (  -0) 3-0 @ 2.8% (  -0) 3-2 @ 2.67% (  0) 4-1 @ 1.34% (  -0) 4-0 @ 0.97% (  -0) 4-2 @ 0.93% (  0) Other @ 1.79% Total : 37.44% | 1-1 @ 12.01% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.26% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.77% (  0) 3-3 @ 1.23% (  0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.43% | 0-1 @ 8.65% (  -0) 1-2 @ 8.3% (  0.01) 0-2 @ 5.98% (  0) 1-3 @ 3.82% (  0.01) 0-3 @ 2.75% (  0) 2-3 @ 2.66% (  0) 1-4 @ 1.32% (  0) 0-4 @ 0.95% (  0) 2-4 @ 0.92% (  0) Other @ 1.76% Total : 37.12% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 | 
| P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 | 
| 3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 | 
| 4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 | 
| 5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 | 
| 6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 | 
| 7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 | 
| 8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 | 
| 9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 | 
| 10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 | 
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 | 
| 12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 | 
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 | 
| 14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 | 
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 | 
| 16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 | 
| 17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 | 
| 18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 | 
| 19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 | 
| 20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 | 
| R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 | 
| R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 | 
| R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 | 
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 | 
| > League One Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
