Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 59.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 18.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.