Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 19.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Bristol Rovers win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.