Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.