The last two league meetings between these two sides at the home of Real Sociedad have finished level, and we are predicting another draw here. The hosts will enter the contest in excellent form, but Athletic are unbeaten in their last three Basque derbies in La Liga, and we can see a low-scoring draw here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 36.49%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.09) 
