Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
Result | ||
Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
60.66% (![]() | 21.2% (![]() | 18.13% (![]() |
Both teams to score 54.32% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.34% (![]() | 42.65% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.94% (![]() | 65.06% (![]() |
Barcelona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.39% (![]() | 13.61% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.24% (![]() | 40.76% (![]() |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.87% (![]() | 37.12% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.09% (![]() | 73.91% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 10.07% (![]() 2-0 @ 10.04% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 9.96% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 6.68% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 6.62% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 3.33% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 3.3% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.28% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.64% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 1.33% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.32% ( ![]() Other @ 3.09% Total : 60.65% | 1-1 @ 9.99% (![]() 0-0 @ 5.05% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.93% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.08% ( ![]() Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.2% | 0-1 @ 5.01% (![]() 1-2 @ 4.95% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 2.48% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.63% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.63% ( ![]() Other @ 2.43% Total : 18.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |