

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 53.12%. A draw has a probability of 23.7% and a win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 23.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.25%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it is 0-1 (6.5%).
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao | 
| 53.12% (  -0.4) | 23.74% (  0.33) | 23.14% (  0.06) | 
| Both teams to score 53.75% (  -1) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 52.82% (  -1.37) | 47.18% (  1.36) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30.58% (  -1.28) | 69.41% (  1.28) | 
| Real Madrid Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 82.29% (  -0.65) | 17.71% (  0.64) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.64% (  -1.13) | 48.36% (  1.13) | 
| Athletic Bilbao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 65.31% (  -0.7) | 34.68% (  0.7) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.59% (  -0.75) | 71.41% (  0.74) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Real Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao | 
| 1-0 @ 10.63% (  0.38) 2-1 @ 9.75% (  -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.2% (  0.14) 3-1 @ 5.62% (  -0.14) 3-0 @ 5.31% (  -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.98% (  -0.14) 4-1 @ 2.43% (  -0.12) 4-0 @ 2.3% (  -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.29% (  -0.09) Other @ 3.61% Total : 53.12% | 1-1 @ 11.25% (  0.19) 0-0 @ 6.14% (  0.34) 2-2 @ 5.16% (  -0.12) 3-3 @ 1.05% (  -0.07) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.73% | 0-1 @ 6.5% (  0.25) 1-2 @ 5.96% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.44% (  0.07) 1-3 @ 2.1% (  -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.82% (  -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.09% Total : 23.14% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 | 
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 | 
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 | 
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 | 
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 | 
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 | 
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 | 
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 | 
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 | 
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 | 
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 | 
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 | 
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 | 
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 | 
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 | 
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 | 
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