Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Mexico will be looking to bounce back from their disappointing performance against Uruguay, but this will be a tough assignment against a very talented Brazil side. We are not expecting too many goals on Saturday but believe that Brazil will have too much quality for their opponents in the contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for Brazil had a probability of 34.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Brazil win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Brazil
38.84% ( -1.6)	26.96% ( 0.29)	34.2% ( 1.31)

Both teams to score 50.85% (

-0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.63% (

-0.89)

54.36% (

0.9)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.25% (

-0.75)

75.74% (

0.75)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.72% (

-1.3)

27.28% (

1.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.28% (

-1.71)

62.72% (

1.71)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.93% (

0.41)

30.07% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.79% (

0.49)

66.2% (

-0.49)

Score Analysis

Mexico 38.83%

Brazil 34.2%

Draw 26.96%

Mexico	Draw	Brazil
1-0 @ 10.65% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.24) 3-0 @ 3% ( -0.23) 3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.04% Total : 38.83%	1-1 @ 12.8% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.96%	0-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.45) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.35% Total : 34.2%