Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Neither side will have the best players on the field, but we do not believe the solid Colombian defence will be bothered by an inexperienced and unproven group of Mexican attackers. A quality striker like Cucho Hernandez could make the difference this weekend for Colombia, which have faced much stronger opponents lately and got results. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 47.84%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 24.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Colombia
47.84% ( -0.4)	27.27% ( 0.08)	24.88% ( 0.32)

Both teams to score 45.26% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.77% (

-0.07)

59.23% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.35% (

-0.05)

79.64% (

0.05)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.15% (

-0.22)

24.85% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.55% (

-0.31)

59.44% (

0.3)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.22% (

0.25)

39.78% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.55% (

0.23)

76.45% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Mexico 47.84%

Colombia 24.88%

Draw 27.27%

Mexico	Draw	Colombia
1-0 @ 13.76% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.25% Total : 47.84%	1-1 @ 12.68% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.63% Total : 27.27%	0-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.39% Total : 24.88%