[monks data]
Guatemala national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Group Stage
Jul 2, 2023 at 2.30am UK
BBVA Compass Stadium
Canada national football team

Guatemala
0 - 0
Canada

FT

Preview: Guatemala vs Canada - prediction, team news, lineups

Preview: Guatemala vs Canada - prediction, team news, lineups
© Imago
Sports Mole previews Sunday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Guatemala and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The first CONCACAF Gold Cup quarter-final fixture to be played on Sunday will see Canada take on Guatemala at US Bank Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Les Rouges topped Group B with a 2-0 victory over El Salvador earlier this week, while the Guatemalans wound up second in Group C following a narrow 3-2 triumph versus Guadeloupe.



Match preview

Matchday three of the Gold Cup group phase saw Guatemala start strong before having to fend off a resilient Guadeloupean team in the final 45 minutes of that contest.

La Azul y Blanco were up by two goals at half time but ultimately barely hung on to make the quarter-finals of this competition for a second successive occasion.

Sunday will mark their fourth appearance in the last eight of the Gold Cup this century, with this team losing out at this stage in each of those prior instances, including a 3-0 defeat to Canada in the 2007 quarter-finals.

They have won their last three matches played across all competitions when scoring first but have lost their previous two competitive games when conceding the opener.

Guatemala have won seven of their previous eight matches across all competitions when netting multiple times in 90 minutes, a run that began in June of last year.

Luis Fernando Tena has yet to win a single match versus a North American side since taking charge of this team, though Los Chapines have avoided defeat in two of their previous three meetings against that region, earning a 0-0 draw in their previous meeting with Canada at the 2023 Gold Cup.

Tajon Buchanan celebrates scoring a goal for Canada on June 24, 2025

Despite the physicality and at times over-aggressiveness of El Salvador on Tuesday, the Canadians persevered to top their Gold Cup group for the first time since 2009.

For the entire second half of matchday three they had a two-man advantage against their Central American opponents and did not concede a single effort on target throughout the 90 minutes

Jesse Marsch’s men are riding a six-match unbeaten run in normal time across all competitions, conceding just once in their three Gold Cup group outings.

The quarter-finals have been the Achilles heel of this group at this tournament, eliminated at this stage in four of their last five appearances in the last eight of this competition.

At the same time, Canada have advanced beyond the last eight in the previous two major tournaments, defeating Venezuela in the Copa America quarter-finals last year and ousting Suriname in a two-leg tie at that same stage of the most recent CONCACAF Nations League.

The Canucks are undefeated in their last five matches versus Guatemala, with this team emerging victorious in four of those encounters, while suffering just one defeat against them this century (2-0 in 2004).

Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

Guatemala form (all competitions):

Canada CONCACAF Gold Cup form:

Canada form (all competitions):



Team News

Rudy Munoz of Guatemala pictured on June 24, 2025

From matchday two to three, five Guatemalans maintained their place in the starting 11, Nicholas Hagen, Aaron Herrera, Jose Carlos Pinto, Nicolas Samayoa and Rudy Munoz.

Hagen, the Guatemalan first-choice goalkeeper, can collect his 50th cap with the national team on Sunday, a feat that Oscar Castellanos was able to reach in their victory over Guadeloupe.

Goals from Pinto, Rubio Rubin and Olger Escobar, who features for Canadian club CF Montreal were enough to see them win their previous match, with the latter netting his first for Los Chapines.

A lower-body injury means that Jonathan Osorio will miss the remainder of the tournament for Canada, Ali Ahmed has been sent home after sustaining an ankle strain, though vice-captain Stephen Eustaquio could be available after Porto were eliminated from the Club World Cup.

Their second-highest all-time goalscorer Cyle Larin can leapfrog Osorio on Sunday for third in all-time caps, and Kamal Miller can reach the half-century mark for appearances with the national team.

Record Canada men’s goalscorer Jonathan David netted his 35th for the Canucks the last time out after missing an opening-half penalty, with Tajon Buchanan netting his third of the tournament on his 50th appearance for the senior squad.

Guatemala possible starting lineup:

Hagen; Herrera, Pinto, Samayoa, Ardon; Castellanos, Saravia, Robles; Escobar, Rubin, Santis

Canada possible starting lineup:

Crepeau; Johnston, Waterman, Cornelius, Laryea; Buchanan, Choiniere, Kone, Shaffelburg; J. David, Akinpelu



SM words green background

We say: Guatemala 0-2 Canada

It has been over 20 years since Guatemala scored a goal against Canada and Les Rouges have shown they are more than capable of handling the physicality and defensive trap that Central American sides like Los Mayas like to play. 

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.





 


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Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Guatemala had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.48%) and 1-2 (7.42%). The likeliest Guatemala win was 1-0 (12.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.


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