Canada national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Group Stage
Jul 4, 2023 at 11.30pm UK
BBVA Compass Stadium
Cuba national football team

Canada
4 - 2
Cuba

Hoilett (21' pen.), Osorio (26'), Nelson (47'), Millar (61')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Paradela (45+4' pen.), Reyes (89' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Canada and Cuba, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Canada

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Guatemala 0-0 Canada
Sunday, July 2 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Cuba

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Cuba 1-4 Guadeloupe
Sunday, July 2 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 78.01%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Cuba had a probability of 6.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.59%) and 3-0 (11.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.05%), while for a Cuba win it was 0-1 (2.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.

Result
CanadaDrawCuba
78.01% (0.081999999999994 0.08)15.06% (0.074 0.07)6.93% (-0.1611 -0.16)
Both teams to score 38.87% (-1.064 -1.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.29% (-0.958 -0.96)43.71% (0.951 0.95)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.9% (-0.944 -0.94)66.1% (0.93899999999999 0.94)
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.74% (-0.21599999999999 -0.22)9.26% (0.21 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.7% (-0.51000000000001 -0.51)31.3% (0.504 0.5)
Cuba Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
42.84% (-1.072 -1.07)57.15% (1.065 1.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.87% (-0.611 -0.61)89.13% (0.604 0.6)
Score Analysis
    Canada 78%
    Cuba 6.93%
    Draw 15.06%
CanadaDrawCuba
2-0 @ 14.98% (0.34 0.34)
1-0 @ 12.59% (0.4 0.4)
3-0 @ 11.88% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 8.38% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)
4-0 @ 7.07% (0.023 0.02)
3-1 @ 6.65% (-0.136 -0.14)
4-1 @ 3.95% (-0.12 -0.12)
5-0 @ 3.36% (-0.022 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.88% (-0.076 -0.08)
3-2 @ 1.86% (-0.102 -0.1)
6-0 @ 1.33% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.11% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 78%
1-1 @ 7.05% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 5.29% (0.218 0.22)
2-2 @ 2.34% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 15.06%
0-1 @ 2.96% (0.026 0.03)
1-2 @ 1.97% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 6.93%

How you voted: Canada vs Cuba

Canada
78.3%
Draw
13.0%
Cuba
8.7%
46
Head to Head
Jun 23, 2019 11pm
Group Stage
Canada
7-0
Cuba
David (4', 71', 77'), Cavallini (21', 43', 45'), Hoilett (50')
Arfield (19')

Morejon (6'), Paradela (29'), Piedra (55')