Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 16, 2023 at 5pm UK
A. Le Coq Arena
We said: Estonia 0-2 Austria
Austria flattered to deceive and then some during their opening showdown with Estonia, but with just 90 minutes left to try to snatch first place from Belgium's grasp, Rangnick's reinforced men should come up with the goods in Tallinn.
Bolstered by the returns of Alaba and Danso, the Boys should have little trouble keeping their shot-shy opponents at arm's length as Estonia simply wait to learn their playoff fate.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 17.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.83%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Estonia win it was 1-0 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Austria in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Austria.
| Result |
| Estonia | Draw | Austria |
17.69% ( -0.1) | 24.14% ( -0.04) | 58.16% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 44.57% ( -0.07) |
| 44.75% ( 0.01) | 55.25% ( -0.01) |
| 23.52% ( 0.01) | 76.48% ( -0) |
| 54.92% ( -0.12) | 45.08% ( 0.13) |
