Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals

Mar 21, 2024 at 5pm UK

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Georgia
2 - 0
Luxembourg

Zivzivadze (40', 63')
Zivzivadze (21'), Kvekveskiri (78'), Kankava (87'), Kashia (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Pinto (24'), Rodrigues (54'), Barreiro (66'), da Graca (82'), Martins Pereira (87'), Bohnert (90+2')
Chanot (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Georgia and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Georgia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Spain 3-1 Georgia
Sunday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	8	20	21
2	Scotland	8	9	17
3	Norway	8	2	11
4	Georgia	8	-6	8
5	Cyprus	8	-25	0

Luxembourg

All competitions

Last Game: Liechtenstein 0-1 Luxembourg
Sunday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	10	34	30
2	Slovakia	10	9	22
3	Luxembourg	10	-6	17
4	Iceland	10	1	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	10	-11	9
6	Liechtenstein	10	-27	0

We said: Georgia 1-1 Luxembourg (a.e.t. - Georgia to win on penalties)

With both managers forced to cope without one of their key offensive players for the semi-final, an extremely tight affair should be in store in Tbilisi, where Georgia may have previously been considered the favourites had Kvaratskhelia been available. A defensively-compact Luxembourg can therefore frustrate their visitors for 120 minutes, but when it comes to the dreaded spot kicks, home advantage may just do the trick for Sagnol's side as they prolong their dreams of Euros qualification while dashing Luxembourg's. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Georgia win with a probability of 67.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 14.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Georgia win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.29%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Georgia in this match.

Result
Georgia	Draw	Luxembourg
67.63% ( -1.37)	18.08% ( 0.69)	14.3% ( 0.69)

Both teams to score 56.54% (

-0.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.5% (

-1.78)

35.5% (

1.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.46% (

-2)

57.54% (

Georgia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.36% (

-0.79)

9.64% (

0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.81% (

-1.88)

32.18% (

1.88)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.57% (

-0.22)

37.43% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.79% (

-0.22)

74.21% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Georgia 67.63%

Luxembourg 14.3%

Draw 18.08%

Georgia	Draw	Luxembourg
2-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.46) 3-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 7.57% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.24) 4-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.26) 3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.14) 5-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.19) 5-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.2) 5-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.11) Other @ 4.34% Total : 67.63%	1-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.32) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.19% Total : 18.08%	1-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.29) 0-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.04% Total : 14.3%