Although Armenia have little left to play for, the former Soviet nation have proven themselves tough opponents throughout much of their Group D campaign, and Croatia only won September's reverse fixture by a single goal.
After losing for the first time at home in European Championship qualifying last month, the home side will be keen to reach Euro 2024 in style - but it may be a closer call than many observers expect.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 72.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 10.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Armenia win it was 0-1 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
-0.23) 
0.11) 
