We said: PAOK 2-1 Ferencvaros
Despite an awful sequence of results in the first five matchdays, PAOK enter Thursday's match in fine goalscoring form, standing them in good stead against Ferencvaros.
With the Hungarian visitors shorn of Varga's match-winning qualities, the home team should back themselves to outscore their opponents in Thessaloniki.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 42.73%. A win for Ferencvaros had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Ferencvaros win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PAOK would win this match.