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Europa League
Europa League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 18, 2022 at 7pm UK
Dnipro Arena
Dnipro-1
1 - 2
Larnaca
Svatok (90')
Sarapiy (63')
Sarapiy (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Altman (16'), Svatok (29' og.)
Gustavo (62'), Casas (90+3')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Dnipro-1 and AEK Larnaca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Dnipro-1

Last Six:
    Last Game: Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1
    Friday, December 10 at 3pm in Ukrainian Premier League

    AEK Larnaca

    Last Six:
      Last Game: Partizan 2-2 Larnaca
      Thursday, August 11 at 8pm in Europa League

      We said: Dnipro-1 1-2 AEK Larnaca

       Considering the gulf in quality and experience between the sides, AEK Larnaca head into Thursday as clear favourites to come out on top. While we expect Dnipro-1 to put up a fight in a bid to claim a headline-grabbing victory, we are backing the Cyprus outfit to claim a first-leg win. Read more.

      Data Analysis

      Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dnipro-1 win with a probability of 44.29%. A win for AEK Larnaca had a probability of 28.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

      The most likely scoreline for a Dnipro-1 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest AEK Larnaca win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AEK Larnaca in this match.

      Result
      Dnipro-1DrawAEK Larnaca
      44.29% (0.021000000000001 0.02) 27.16% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 28.55% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
      Both teams to score 48.17%
      Goals
      Over 2.5Under 2.5
      43.21% (0.007000000000005 0.01)56.79% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
      Over 3.5Under 3.5
      22.27% (0.004999999999999 0)77.73% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
      Dnipro-1 Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      74.5% (0.013000000000005 0.01)25.5% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      39.66% (0.018999999999998 0.02)60.34% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
      AEK Larnaca Goals
      Over 0.5Under 0.5
      64.66% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)35.34% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
      Over 1.5Under 1.5
      27.9% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)72.1% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
      Score Analysis
          Dnipro-1 44.29%
          AEK Larnaca 28.55%
          Draw 27.15%
      Dnipro-1DrawAEK Larnaca
      1-0 @ 12.31%
      2-1 @ 8.75% (0.0020000000000007 0)
      2-0 @ 8.41% (0.0039999999999996 0)
      3-1 @ 3.99% (0.0030000000000001 0)
      3-0 @ 3.83% (0.004 0)
      3-2 @ 2.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
      4-1 @ 1.36% (0.0010000000000001 0)
      4-0 @ 1.31% (0.00099999999999989 0)
      Other @ 2.25%
      Total : 44.29%
      		1-1 @ 12.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
      0-0 @ 9.01% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
      2-2 @ 4.55%
      Other @ 0.79%
      Total : 27.15%
      		0-1 @ 9.37% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
      1-2 @ 6.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
      0-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
      1-3 @ 2.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
      0-3 @ 1.69% (-0.002 -0)
      2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
      Other @ 2.06%
      Total : 28.55%

      How you voted: Dnipro-1 vs Larnaca

      Dnipro-1
      42.2%
      Draw
      18.8%
      AEK Larnaca
      39.1%
      64
      rhs 2.0
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