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Europa League

Europa League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2024 at 7pm UK
Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex
Maribor

Botev Plovdiv
2 - 1
Maribor

Ujah (9'), Iliyanov Iliev (74')
Nachukwu (43'), Balogiannis (55'), Minkov (78')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Sirvys (19')
Karic (30'), Repas (30'), Repas (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Botev Plovdiv and Maribor, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Botev Plovdiv

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Last Game: APOEL 2-0 Botev Plovdiv
Thursday, July 28 at 6pm in Europa Conference League
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Maribor

All competitions
Last Game: Koper 1-1 Maribor
Sunday, May 19 at 4.30pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Botev Plovdiv had a probability of 24.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.75%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Botev Plovdiv win was 1-0 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Botev PlovdivDrawMaribor
24.12% (0.021000000000001 0.02)23.38% (0.0030000000000001 0)52.49% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Both teams to score 56.08% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.36% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)44.64% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.99% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)67.01% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Botev Plovdiv Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.57% (0.021000000000001 0.02)32.43% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.05% (0.021999999999998 0.02)68.95% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Maribor Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)17% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.87% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)47.13% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Botev Plovdiv 24.12%
    Maribor 52.49%
    Draw 23.38%
Botev PlovdivDrawMaribor
1-0 @ 6.21% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-1 @ 6.19% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 3.5% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 2.33% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 2.06% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-0 @ 1.31% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 24.12%
1-1 @ 11%
0-0 @ 5.51% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 5.49% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 23.38%
0-1 @ 9.77% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 9.75% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 8.65% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.76% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 5.11% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 3.24%
1-4 @ 2.55% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-4 @ 2.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.44%
1-5 @ 0.9%
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 52.49%

How you voted: Botev Plovdiv vs Maribor

Botev Plovdiv
51.2%
Draw
39.0%
Maribor
9.8%
41