After two games, the two sides have identical records in the Eredivisie, and just four points separated them in the table last season, with Fortuna Sittard finishing two places higher.
Given that they are very evenly-matched, we expect Excelsior and Fortuna to play out a draw this weekend, with both teams extending their unbeaten runs.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 36.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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