Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 31.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Feyenoord | 
| 31.01% | 24.25% | 44.73% | 
| Both teams to score 58.78% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 56.36% | 43.64% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.97% | 66.03% | 
| Heracles Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.17% | 26.83% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.87% | 62.13% | 
| Feyenoord Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.33% | 19.67% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.34% | 51.65% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Heracles | Draw | Feyenoord | 
| 2-1 @ 7.43% 1-0 @ 6.94% 2-0 @ 4.57% 3-1 @ 3.26% 3-2 @ 2.65% 3-0 @ 2% 4-1 @ 1.07% Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.01% | 1-1 @ 11.29% 2-2 @ 6.04% 0-0 @ 5.28% 3-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.25% | 1-2 @ 9.18% 0-1 @ 8.58% 0-2 @ 6.98% 1-3 @ 4.98% 0-3 @ 3.78% 2-3 @ 3.27% 1-4 @ 2.02% 0-4 @ 1.54% 2-4 @ 1.33% Other @ 3.07% Total : 44.73% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Ajax | 34 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 98 | 19 | 79 | 83 | 
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 86 | 42 | 44 | 81 | 
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 76 | 34 | 42 | 71 | 
| 4 | FC Twente | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 68 | 
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 61 | 
| 6 | Vitesse | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 51 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 47 | 
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 41 | 
| 9 | Cambuur | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 39 | 
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 38 | 
| 11 | NEC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 38 | 
| 12 | Groningen | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 41 | 55 | -14 | 36 | 
| 13 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 36 | 
| 14 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 35 | 
| 15 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 35 | 
| 16 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 34 | 
| 17 | Willem II | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 33 | 
| R | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 27 | 
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