The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Colon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Penarol 0-1 Cerro Largo
Saturday, June 4 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Saturday, June 4 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
Last Game: Tucuman 1-1 Colon
Saturday, June 4 at 4pm in Argentine Primera Division
Saturday, June 4 at 4pm in Argentine Primera Division
Next Game: Colon vs. Union
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Argentine Primera Division
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Argentine Primera Division
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| 16 | Godoy Cruz | 12 | -1 | 15 |
We said: Penarol 1-1 Colon
Having already secured progress into the next round of the Copa Libertadores, the away side can afford to take their foot off the gas a bit, although they will still be keen to cement top spot in the group. We expect an open and end-to-end affair with both teams settling for a point apiece come the final whistle. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Colon had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Colon win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Colon |
43.81% ( -0.04) | 26.13% ( 0.02) | 30.05% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.04% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
