We said: Jamaica 1-2 Mexico
Given the recent disarray in the Jamaica camp, the home side are not best placed to take advantage of their visitors' relative inexperience, and they are still set to lose to a second-string Mexican side.
The Reggae Boyz last kept a clean sheet in October - some 11 games ago - so there is little chance of shutting out an attack motivated by the chance of a place on the plane to Qatar.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 49.25%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 25.73% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-0 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
