Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aruba win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Saint Kitts and Nevis had a probability of 35.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aruba win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.93%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Saint Kitts and Nevis win was 1-2 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.