

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 47.63%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 29.38% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.55%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Koln | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 29.38% ( | 22.99% ( | 47.63% ( |
| Both teams to score 62.3% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.42% ( | 38.58% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.12% ( | 60.87% ( |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.63% ( | 25.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.84% ( | 60.16% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.47% ( | 16.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.72% ( | 46.28% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Koln | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 7.1% ( 1-0 @ 5.75% ( 2-0 @ 3.94% ( 3-1 @ 3.25% ( 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 3-0 @ 1.8% ( 4-1 @ 1.11% ( 4-2 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.5% Total : 29.38% | 1-1 @ 10.35% 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.19% ( 3-3 @ 1.75% Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.99% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0-2 @ 6.79% ( 1-3 @ 5.59% ( 0-3 @ 4.08% ( 2-3 @ 3.84% ( 1-4 @ 2.52% ( 0-4 @ 1.83% ( 2-4 @ 1.73% ( 1-5 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 3.49% Total : 47.63% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 33 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 23 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 41 | 51 | 72 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
| 5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 60 |
| 6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 64 | -2 | 43 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
| 9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 37 |
| 13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 33 |
| 15 | Mainz 05Mainz | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 32 |
| 16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
| 17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
| R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 82 | -52 | 17 |
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