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Bundesliga | Gameweek 8
Oct 1, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Mage-Solar-Stadion
Mainz logo
Freiburg
2 - 1
Mainz 05
Gregoritsch (3'), Kyereh (37')
Hofler (70'), Keitel (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Caricol (52')
Bell (33'), Barreiro (53'), Stach (60'), Kohr (90')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-0 Freiburg
Sunday, September 18 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 05 1-1 Hertha Berlin
Friday, September 16 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Mainz 05

 Just three points separate the two sides, but recent form and home advantage might just be the decisive factor here. Freiburg come into the game on the back of three clean sheets in all competitions, whereas Mainz's recent form has been slightly more questionable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.

Result
FreiburgDrawMainz 05
47.11% (-0.56 -0.56) 24.2% (-0.113 -0.11) 28.68% (0.673 0.67)
Both teams to score 57.52% (0.875 0.88)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.34% (0.929 0.93)44.66% (-0.931 -0.93)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.98% (0.891 0.89)67.02% (-0.892 -0.89)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.91% (0.137 0.14)19.08% (-0.139 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.31% (0.231 0.23)50.69% (-0.231 -0.23)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.09% (0.96199999999999 0.96)28.91% (-0.963 -0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.21% (1.177 1.18)64.79% (-1.179 -1.18)
Score Analysis
    Freiburg 47.11%
    Mainz 05 28.68%
    Draw 24.2%
FreiburgDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.39% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-0 @ 9.14% (-0.331 -0.33)
2-0 @ 7.57% (-0.24 -0.24)
3-1 @ 5.19%
3-0 @ 4.18% (-0.113 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.085 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.15% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.73% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 47.11%
1-1 @ 11.34% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-2 @ 5.83% (0.129 0.13)
0-0 @ 5.52% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-3 @ 1.33% (0.069 0.07)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.2%
1-2 @ 7.04% (0.124 0.12)
0-1 @ 6.85% (-0.091 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.25% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.91% (0.127 0.13)
2-3 @ 2.41% (0.116 0.12)
0-3 @ 1.76% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 0.9% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 28.68%

How you voted: Freiburg vs Mainz 05

Freiburg
82.2%
Draw
13.3%
Mainz 05
4.4%
45
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2022 2.30pm
Freiburg
1-1
Mainz 05
Petersen (69')
Hack (31')
Stach (7'), Kohr (76')
Sep 18, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz 05
0-0
Freiburg

Hack (45'), Zentner (90+3')

Schlotterbeck (64')
Mar 13, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz 05
1-0
Freiburg
Quaison (84')
Bell (68')

Hofler (21'), Schlotterbeck (33'), Schmid (90+5')
Nov 22, 2020 2.30pm
Freiburg
1-3
Mainz 05
Petersen (63')
Mateta (2', 34', 40')
Niakhate (66')
Jan 18, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz 05
1-2
Freiburg
Mateta (82')
Baku (26'), Hack (40'), Kunde (51'), Niakhate (82')
Chang-Hoon (28'), Petersen (41')
Haberer (37'), Abrashi (82')
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayern MunichBayern34218592385471
2Borussia DortmundDortmund34225783443971
3RB Leipzig34206864412366
4Union BerlinUnion Berlin34188851381362
5Freiburg3417895144759
6Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen34148125749850
7Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt341311105852650
8Wolfsburg341310115748949
9Mainz 05Mainz341210125455-146
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach341110135255-343
11FC Koln341012124954-542
12Hoffenheim34106184857-936
13Werder Bremen34106185164-1336
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum34105194072-3235
15Augsburg3497184263-2134
16Stuttgart34712154557-1233
RSchalke 04Schalke34710173571-3631
RHertha Berlin3478194269-2729
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