With both teams missing several key players due to injury, we do not expect either side to be at their best on Saturday, especially having suffered disappointing results last weekend.
However, Dortmund should be able to gain a marginal victory to ensure that they move one point above Bayern prior to their fixture against Leverkusen on Sunday, with Koln needing to pick themselves up after the international break.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 67.98%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 14.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
0.46) 
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