Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 43.41%. A win for Zimbabwe had a probability of 31.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Zimbabwe win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malawi would win this match.
