Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Ivory Coast had a probability of 33.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Ivory Coast win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ivory Coast would win this match.