Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 60.41%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 19.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 1-0 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
