Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
