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[monks data]
Jan 24, 2023 at 8pm UK at St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton
0 - 1
Newcastle

Caleta-Car (28'), Alcaraz (37'), Walker-Peters (44'), Lyanco (84'), Salisu (90+5')
Caleta-Car (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Joelinton (73')
Trippier (70'), Saint-Maximin (84'), Guimaraes (86')

Preview: Southampton vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Southampton and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aiming to put one foot in the final of the EFL Cup, Southampton and Newcastle United renew hostilities at St Mary's for the first leg of their semi-final on Tuesday night.

Nathan Jones's side stunned perennial champions Manchester City to make it to the final four, while the Magpies confidently dispatched Leicester City 2-0, and the two hopefuls will face off again on January 31 for the chance to meet Manchester United or Nottingham Forest in the showpiece match.


Match preview

Southampton manager Nathan Jones pictured on January 11, 2023© Reuters

What could have been the catalyst for an improved run of fortunes at St Mary's has not quite panned out that way for Southampton, who have been brought crashing back down to earth since their shock elimination of Man City in the EFL Cup quarter-finals.

A comeback victory over fellow Premier League strugglers Everton last weekend continued to brighten the mood, but there was little joy to be had at St Mary's on Saturday, where Ollie Watkins scored the only goal of the game in a 1-0 success for Aston Villa after a drone had halted play.

Referee Michael Salisbury was the target of Saints' frustrations after another goal for captain James Ward-Prowse was ruled out, with Mohamed Elyounoussi adjudged to have fouled Jacob Ramsey, leaving the South-coast side rock bottom of the Premier League table.

The cups have been a welcome distraction for the Saints, though, as Jones's side previously saw off Cambridge United, Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln City to make it this far and are now bidding to reach their first final since 2016-17, where they ultimately lost to Jose Mourinho's Manchester United.

Somewhat bizarrely, Man City are the only team to have failed to score at St Mary's in Southampton's last 15 home matches, but Newcastle have hardly been ruthless in front of goal during the period of cold snaps.

Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe during the match on January 10, 2023© Reuters

It took an 89th-minute header from Alexander Isak to help Newcastle see off Fulham last weekend, but they were met with another low block in the form of Crystal Palace on Saturday, and Howe's men would not find their way through this time around.

While Vicente Guaita came up with seven saves at Selhurst Park - albeit mostly comfortable ones - Nick Pope was called into action to produce a sensational stop from Jean-Philippe Mateta, and that point was enough for Newcastle to rise to third before Manchester United's meeting with Arsenal.

A hint of apprehension may be creeping in for Newcastle fans after witnessing their side score just four goals in their last six games, although two of those came in their quarter-final win over Leicester, where second-half strikes from Joelinton and Dan Burn did the damage.

Competing in the EFL Cup semi-finals for the first time since the 1975-76 season - their only appearance in the final four to date - Newcastle travel to St Mary's having failed to win any of their three away games so far in 2023, but goals against Southampton have been easy to come by for the Magpies.

Indeed, Howe's side stormed to a 4-1 win at St Mary's earlier this season - their third triumph from their last four over Southampton - and they have struck 11 goals versus the Saints in that time, albeit while conceding six themselves.

Southampton EFL Cup form:


Southampton form (all competitions):


Newcastle United EFL Cup form:


Newcastle United form (all competitions):



Team News

Newcastle United's Bruno Guimaraes reacts at the end of the first half on January 15, 2023© Reuters

A quintet of players missed out for Southampton at the weekend, with Stuart Armstrong, Juan Larios and Valentino Livramento all guaranteed to sit this one out too, but Theo Walcott is now in contention and Armel Bella-Kotchap is edging closer to a return.

Jones is facing some crucial decisions in the final third, as Sekou Mara and Moussa Djenepo - who both started on the bench at the weekend - came up with the goals that dumped Man City out of the EFL Cup in the quarter-finals.

No player has scored more EFL Cup goals than Che Adams's four this term, but another uninspired outing against Villa means that his spot is certainly under threat from Mara, and the Saints have also recalled Jan Bednarek from his loan spell with the Lions.

As for Newcastle, Bruno Guimaraes somehow completed the full 90 minutes at Selhurst Park, despite suffering a serious-looking ankle injury against Fulham last weekend, and he will seemingly be fine to start again after coming through unscathed.

Jonjo Shelvey, Matt Targett and Emil Krafth remain out of contention for the Magpies, who should keep changes to a minimum for this encounter, but Howe will surely be tempted into an attacking switch or two.

Isak and Allan Saint-Maximin are ready to provide some fresh legs in the final third, with Callum Wilson possibly fearing for his place after going eight games without finding the back of the net, but Howe has admitted that Isak is yet to train at full intensity since overcoming his thigh injury.

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Lyanco, Salisu, Caleta-Car, Walker-Peters; Diallo, Lavia; Edozie, Ward-Prowse, Djenepo; Mara

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Willock, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Almiron, Wilson, Joelinton


SM words green background

We say: Southampton 0-2 Newcastle United

Southampton will give themselves the best possible chance of a positive first-leg result if they set up to frustrate Newcastle, who have hardly been clinical in front of goal recently, but Jones may opt to go gung-ho at home before a more conservative approach at St James' Park.

Such tactics would leave the Saints exposed, though, and with Newcastle boasting one of the best defences in the country this season, we have faith in the Magpies to take a first-leg advantage back to St James' Park.


For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.


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Game History

How you voted: Southampton vs Newcastle

Southampton
19.9%
Draw
14.4%
Newcastle United
65.7%
216
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Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Arsenal19162145162950
2Manchester CityMan City20143353203345
3Newcastle UnitedNewcastle20109133112239
4Manchester UnitedMan Utd2012353225739
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs2111374031936
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton1994637271031
7Fulham219483230231
8Brentford207943228430
9Liverpool198563425929
10Chelsea208572221129
11Aston Villa208482327-428
12Crystal Palace206681827-924
13Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest205691635-1921
14Leicester CityLeicester2053122835-718
15Leeds UnitedLeeds194692633-718
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham2053121725-818
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2045111230-1817
18Bournemouth2045111942-2317
19Everton2036111528-1315
20Southampton2043131735-1815

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