Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 61.84%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 17.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 0-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Spezia win it was 2-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
