

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 24.84% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fiorentina | Draw | Sampdoria |
| 51.11% | 24.05% | 24.84% |
| Both teams to score 54.68% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.13% | 46.86% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.88% | 69.12% |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.65% | 18.35% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.53% | 49.46% |
| Sampdoria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.97% | 33.02% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.38% | 69.61% |
| Score Analysis |
| Fiorentina | Draw | Sampdoria |
| 1-0 @ 10.27% 2-1 @ 9.65% 2-0 @ 8.71% 3-1 @ 5.46% 3-0 @ 4.92% 3-2 @ 3.02% 4-1 @ 2.31% 4-0 @ 2.09% 4-2 @ 1.28% Other @ 3.39% Total : 51.1% | 1-1 @ 11.38% 0-0 @ 6.06% 2-2 @ 5.35% 3-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.04% | 0-1 @ 6.71% 1-2 @ 6.31% 0-2 @ 3.72% 1-3 @ 2.33% 2-3 @ 1.97% 0-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 2.42% Total : 24.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Napoli | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 22 | 46 | 79 |
| 2 | Lazio | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 61 |
| 3 | Juventus | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 60 |
| 4 | Inter Milan | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 57 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 57 |
| 6 | Roma | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 57 |
| 7 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 37 | 16 | 55 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 45 |
| 9 | Bologna | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 45 |
| 10 | Monza | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 44 |
| 11 | SassuoloSassuolo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 43 |
| 12 | Udinese | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 42 |
| 13 | Torino | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | Salernitana | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 | Empoli | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 32 |
| 16 | Lecce | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 31 |
| 17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 27 |
| 18 | SpeziaSpezia | 32 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 27 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 32 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 28 | 58 | -30 | 20 |
| 20 | Sampdoria | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 20 | 57 | -37 | 17 |
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