Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60.54%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 16.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.