Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.83%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.8%) and 3-1 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.87%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (2.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-0 win for Manchester City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Southampton |
| 81.83% ( | 11.24% ( | 6.93% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.81% ( | 23.19% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 57.49% ( | 42.51% ( |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.79% ( | 4.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 82.45% ( | 17.55% ( |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.34% ( | 41.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.86% ( | 78.14% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Southampton |
| 3-0 @ 9.29% ( 2-0 @ 8.8% ( 3-1 @ 8.14% 2-1 @ 7.71% ( 4-0 @ 7.36% ( 4-1 @ 6.44% ( 1-0 @ 5.56% ( 5-0 @ 4.66% ( 5-1 @ 4.08% ( 3-2 @ 3.56% ( 4-2 @ 2.82% ( 6-0 @ 2.46% ( 6-1 @ 2.15% ( 5-2 @ 1.79% ( 7-0 @ 1.11% ( 7-1 @ 0.98% ( 6-2 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.98% Total : 81.83% | 1-1 @ 4.87% ( 2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0-0 @ 1.76% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 11.24% | 1-2 @ 2.13% ( 0-1 @ 1.54% ( 2-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 6.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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