Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 67.8%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 13.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.25%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.12%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.