Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 49.76%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.