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Carlisle United
League Two | Gameweek 22
Dec 26, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Morecambe

Carlisle
0 - 1
Morecambe


Ellis (60')
Mellish (62')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Edwards (61')
Hendrie (36'), Lewis (89'), Tutonda (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's League Two clash between Carlisle United and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Port Vale 0-0 Carlisle
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 0-2 Bromley
Saturday, December 21 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Carlisle United 0-1 Morecambe

Despite their recent struggles, Morecambe have looked much more cohesive and decisive away from home, and we believe they can frustrate a side that have been dismal in front of their supporters all season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 36.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Morecambe in this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawMorecambe
36.68% (-0.707 -0.71) 26.65% (0.117 0.12) 36.67% (0.588 0.59)
Both teams to score 52.05% (-0.376 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.06% (-0.481 -0.48)52.94% (0.476 0.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.46% (-0.411 -0.41)74.54% (0.40900000000001 0.41)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.15% (-0.642 -0.64)27.85% (0.639 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.55% (-0.82700000000001 -0.83)63.45% (0.824 0.82)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.14% (0.117 0.12)27.85% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.54% (0.15 0.15)63.46% (-0.153 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 36.68%
    Morecambe 36.67%
    Draw 26.65%
Carlisle UnitedDrawMorecambe
1-0 @ 9.92% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.1% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-0 @ 6.34% (-0.109 -0.11)
3-1 @ 3.45% (-0.111 -0.11)
3-0 @ 2.7% (-0.096 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.21% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-1 @ 1.1% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 36.68%
1-1 @ 12.67% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 7.76% (0.145 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.18% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.65%
0-1 @ 9.91% (0.218 0.22)
1-2 @ 8.1% (0.062000000000001 0.06)
0-2 @ 6.34% (0.16 0.16)
1-3 @ 3.45% (0.038 0.04)
0-3 @ 2.7% (0.077 0.08)
2-3 @ 2.21% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.1% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 36.67%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Morecambe

Carlisle United
60.0%
Draw
20.0%
Morecambe
20.0%
5
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2024 7pm
Group Stage
Morecambe
1-2
Carlisle
Hope (16')
Snowball (45+1'), Lewis (76')
O'Donoghue (75'), Williams (78')
Nov 9, 2021 7pm
Group Stage
Morecambe
0-2
Carlisle

Gibson (34')
Gibson (49'), Mellor (54')
Mar 6, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 34
Morecambe
3-1
Carlisle
Wildig (32'), Diagouraga (37'), Stockton (53')
Lavelle (12'), Mellor (45+2')
Hayden (79')
Alessandra (39')
Oct 27, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 9
Carlisle
3-1
Morecambe
Songo'o (1' og.), Mellish (3'), Tanner (87')
Riley (37'), Reilly (89')
Songo'o (79')
O'Sullivan (50'), Songo'o (81')
Feb 22, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 35
Carlisle
2-2
Morecambe
Patrick (45'), Hayden (65')
Watt (51'), Anderton (59'), Webster (90')
Stockton (18'), Wildig (24')
Cranston (85')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale422113859401976
2Bradford CityBradford4221101158391973
3Walsall4220121072512172
4Doncaster RoversDoncaster4120111062471571
5AFC Wimbledon4219121155322369
6Notts County4219111262431968
7Grimsby Town42206165960-166
8Colchester UnitedColchester421617951401165
9Chesterfield4217111465501562
10Salford City411613125347661
11Crewe AlexandraCrewe421516114944561
12Swindon TownSwindon421415136661557
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood421414145756156
14Bromley421414145656056
15BarrowBarrow421510174947255
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham421411175463-953
17Gillingham421214163744-750
18Newport CountyNewport42138215170-1947
19MK Dons42137225166-1546
20Harrogate TownHarrogate421210203554-1946
21Tranmere RoversTranmere421014183961-2244
22Accrington StanleyAccrington421013194966-1743
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle42910233663-2737
24Morecambe42106263762-2536


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