

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Fleetwood Town | 
| 38.14% (  0.05) | 26.2% (  -0.01) | 35.65% (  -0.05) | 
| Both teams to score 53.49% (  0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 48.91% (  0.01) | 51.09% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.05% (  0.01) | 72.94% (  -0.01) | 
| Carlisle United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.86% (  0.03) | 26.14% (  -0.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.79% (  0.05) | 61.21% (  -0.05) | 
| Fleetwood Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.42% (  -0.02) | 27.57% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.9% (  -0.03) | 63.09% (  0.03) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Carlisle United | Draw | Fleetwood Town | 
| 1-0 @ 9.67% (  0.01) 2-1 @ 8.36% (  0.01) 2-0 @ 6.49% (  0.01) 3-1 @ 3.74% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 2.9% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 2.41% (  0) 4-1 @ 1.25% (  0) 4-0 @ 0.97% (  0) Other @ 2.35% Total : 38.14% | 1-1 @ 12.45% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.21% (  -0) 2-2 @ 5.38% (  0) 3-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.2% | 0-1 @ 9.29% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.03% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.98% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.45% (  -0) 0-3 @ 2.57% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.31% (  -0) 1-4 @ 1.11% (  -0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 35.65% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 | 
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 | 
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 | 
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 | 
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 | 
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 | 
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 | 
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 | 
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 | 
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 | 
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 | 
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 | 
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 | 
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 | 
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 | 
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 | 
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
