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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Carlisle United |
45.64% (![]() | 25.04% | 29.31% (![]() |
Both teams to score 55.12% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52% (![]() | 48% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.83% | 70.17% |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.94% (![]() | 21.06% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.13% (![]() | 53.87% (![]() |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.83% (![]() | 30.17% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.67% (![]() | 66.32% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 9.9% 2-1 @ 9.24% 2-0 @ 7.71% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.8% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 4% 3-2 @ 2.87% 4-1 @ 1.87% 4-0 @ 1.56% 4-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.58% Total : 45.64% | 1-1 @ 11.86% 0-0 @ 6.36% 2-2 @ 5.54% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 7.62% 1-2 @ 7.11% 0-2 @ 4.56% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.84% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.21% 0-3 @ 1.82% Other @ 3.16% Total : 29.31% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
> League Two Full Table |