Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 42.06%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.