

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 49.29%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 25.66% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
| 49.29% ( | 25.05% ( | 25.66% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.62% ( | 50.37% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.69% ( | 72.31% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.54% ( | 20.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.09% ( | 52.91% ( |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.76% ( | 34.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.07% ( | 70.93% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
| 1-0 @ 11.11% ( 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 2-0 @ 8.82% ( 3-1 @ 5% ( 3-0 @ 4.67% ( 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 4-1 @ 1.98% ( 4-0 @ 1.85% ( 4-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.67% Total : 49.29% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0-0 @ 7% ( 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 3-3 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.05% | 0-1 @ 7.51% ( 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0-2 @ 4.02% ( 1-3 @ 2.28% ( 2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0-3 @ 1.44% ( Other @ 2.22% Total : 25.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Real Madrid | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 95 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 79 | 44 | 35 | 85 |
| 3 | GironaGirona | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 81 |
| 4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 76 |
| 5 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 68 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 60 |
| 7 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 57 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 53 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 49 |
| 10 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 45 |
| 12 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 43 |
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 41 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 41 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 40 |
| 16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 38 |
| R | CadizCadiz | 38 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 33 |
| R | Almeria | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 21 |
| R | Granada | 38 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 21 |
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