This has all the makings of a very interesting match, and we are expecting it to be a close affair. Cadiz are not losing games at the moment, but Rayo will have been boosted by their excellent result against Atletico, and we are backing the home team to run out 2-1 winners here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 51.69%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 21.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.09) 
