Girona will enter this match in excellent form, but they have only won twice on their travels in the league this season, so it is difficult to back them with any real confidence. Getafe are better than what they have shown for much of the campaign, and we are tipping the hosts to secure a share of the spoils here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for Girona had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Getafe would win this match.
0.42) 
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