Despite both meetings ending as 2-2 draws last season, we expect Atletico to record a victory this time around.
The hosts should be fresher after Villarreal played in midweek, and we expect this to pay dividends, particularly later in the match with Simeone having so many excellent attacking options to call upon from the bench.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 27.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.02) 
