With both sides desperate for the win, we are predicting a cagey game, with neither side wanting to overcommit and leave themselves vulnerable on the counter.
Almeria have looked better going forward in recent weeks, while Girona are always dangerous with Stuani on the pitch, so a score draw would seem to be a plausible outcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 46.36%. A win for Girona had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
0.41) 
-0.12) 
